Nearly 7,000 people estimated will be killed or injured in Gaza by Israeli military during UK Parliament recess - Oxfam

Nearly 7,000 people across Gaza are likely to be killed or injured if Israel’s military offensive continues at its current level during the UK Parliament’s Summer recess, according to new Oxfam analysis. In the 33 days that Parliament is adjourned, it is estimated that more than 1,800 people - a third of them children - will be killed with over 5,000 injured.

Using the UN cumulative impact reports from 8 May to 22 July, for recent fatality and injury figures in Gaza, Oxfam calculates that 1,831 people in Gaza will be killed and 5,016 injured by Israel’s military during recess. The analysis comes as the UK Government continues to allow arms sales to Israel, despite knowing that they are likely to be used to commit war crimes in Gaza, breaking international law. This includes components for F-35 Israeli fighter jets, routinely used for devastating airstrikes.

Separate data for the same period from Action on Armed Violence (AOAV), which recorded Israeli airstrikes in Gaza and resulting casualties, showed that airstrikes were responsible for more than 45 per cent of the recent fatality figures.

Israel’s bombing campaign has been widely reported as one of the deadliest and most destructive in modern history. This includes the frequent use of Mark 84 2,000-pound bombs, with a lethal fragmentation radius of up to 1,100 feet from the point of detonation. Entire families and neighbourhoods have been killed and destroyed, while more than 10,000 people are reported to be missing or entombed under the rubble.

Halima Begum, Oxfam GB chief executive said: “Israeli fighter jets, like the F-35, are relentlessly dropping lethal bombs that indiscriminately kill and maim civilians across Gaza every single day - the humanitarian impact has been horrific. By selling F-35 components to Israel, the UK Government is effectively facilitating many of the Israeli airstrikes and the decimation of Gaza.

“The government is fully aware of the risk that arms exported from the UK are likely being used to commit war crimes in Gaza. It is critical that the UK Government immediately suspend both existing and new licences for all arms sales, whether direct to Israel or via third parties. Without such concrete action, glaring loopholes for continued arms transfers will remain. Minor restrictions will make little meaningful difference in this appalling crisis.”

As a signatory to the Arms Trade Treaty and under domestic law, the UK has a legal obligation to ensure that UK arms are not sold if there is a clear risk that they might be used to commit or facilitate a serious violation of International Humanitarian Law. Oxfam is calling on the new UK Government to immediately suspend existing and new licences for all arms sales to Israel, whether direct or via a third party.

Previously, during periods of Israeli military offensives in Gaza or against Palestinians in the region, both Labour and Conservative governments have restricted or suspended the sale of arms to Israel, including both the Blair and Thatcher administrations. Yet even where restrictions were imposed on arms exports by the UK Government, the Israeli government repeatedly flouted them, including using the arms in attacks on Gaza.

Gaza is one of the most densely populated places on earth, with over two million people trapped in an area the size of the Isle of Wight and almost the entire population displaced. The extensive use of such heavy munitions has horrific consequences for civilians, as evidenced by the soaring death toll.

A recent Oxfam report showed how Israeli military attacks, many of them airstrikes, have damaged or destroyed five water and sanitation infrastructure sites every three days since the start of the war. Israel has destroyed all of the wastewater treatment plants and 70 per cent of all sewage pumps, as well as the main water quality testing laboratories in Gaza.

Dr Samir, who works for Oxfam’s water, sanitation and hygiene partner in Gaza and is himself displaced, said: “The relentless Israeli bombings have devastated entire communities, leading to an unimaginable loss of life and widespread destruction. Every bomb dropped means more innocent lives lost, families torn apart, and homes reduced to rubble.

“Experiencing or witnessing the killing of relatives, friends, and aid workers in Gaza is incredibly devastating. These are heartbreaking moments that shatter lives and leave a void that can never be filled. Hearing the news of the killing of an entire family all at once is gut-wrenching.”

As an organisation mounting a humanitarian response in Gaza, Oxfam has been authorised by the High Court in London to act as an intervener in a judicial review of the Government’s continuing approval of arms sales to Israel, a case which was filed under the previous administration. The hearing is expected to take place in October. The case is being brought by the UK-based Global Legal Action Network (GLAN) and Al Haq, an independent Palestinian human rights organisation. The case is supported by the International Centre of Justice for Palestinians.

Earlier this year, more than 600 legal figures, including former Supreme Court President Lady Hale and over 60 King’s Counsel, wrote to the UK government warning that the government risks breaching international law by continuing to allow the export of arms to Israel.

Oxfam is calling on the new UK Government to use all diplomatic and economic levers to help secure an immediate and permanent ceasefire. It must also use its influence to ensure the safe release of all Israeli hostages as well as unlawfully detained Palestinians, and allow full and unfettered access to humanitarian aid throughout Gaza.

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For more information and interviews, please contact the Media Unit on 07884 114 825 /media.unit@oxfam.org.uk

Notes to editor

To calculate a realistic estimate of the number of people who will be killed and injured across Gaza during the 33 days of the UK Parliament’s Summer recess (Wednesday 31 July – Sunday 1 September inclusive), Oxfam used the most recent UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA) cumulative impact reports, sourced from the Ministry of Health in Gaza. The Ministry does not differentiate between civilian and combatant deaths.

OCHA updates from 8 May and 22 July 2024 were compared to calculate the total reported fatalities and injuries in Gaza resulting from Israel’s military campaign over the 75-day period. In total, 4,162 people were killed and 11,414 people injured. The average number of people reported killed per day was 55.49, with 152 people injured. These numbers were multiplied by 33, to provide the estimation of 1,831 people killed and 5,016 people injured. OCHA updates, sourced from the Ministry of Health, only provide a demographic breakdown for people that have been identified. Individuals with incomplete information are excluded. The latest available data shows that up to 30 April 2024, 32 per cent of fatalities since the conflict began, are children. OCHA updates consistently state that more than 10,000 people are reported missing or under the rubble, sourced from the Government Media Office and Palestinian Civil Defence.

Separate data recorded by Action on Armed Violence (AOAV) for 8 May to 22 July 2024 evidenced that in the 75-day period, there were 414 Israeli airstrikes – from jets, drones and helicopters. 399 of which were responsible for 3,544 civilian casualties, killing 1,883 people and injuring 1,661. Over this same period, UN data shows that 4,162 people died, meaning over 45 per cent of people were killed by Israeli airstrikes.

Action On Armed Violence (AOAV) records, investigates and disseminates evidence of armed violence against civilians worldwide, using English-language media reports to capture information on who has been killed and injured by incidents of explosive violence. An AOAV report last year found that English-language media underreports the number of casualties caused by specific incidents of explosive weapons use, capturing only roughly a third of the actual civilian deaths from specific explosive incidents in Gaza.

The official statistics on the Government’s UK arms exports to Israel cover from 27 October 2023 to 31 May 2024. The data shows the number of extant (current) licences where Israel was included as a destination as of 31 May 2024 was 345. A further 185 Israel export control licence applications are in-progress. 108 new licences have been approved since 7 October and only 2 licence requests for non-military equipment were rejected, but this was due to applications not being properly filled in.

Examples of military equipment covered under the licences include components for military aircraft, components for military vehicles, components for combat naval vessels, training small arms ammunition, submarine components and components for body armour.

For the judicial review of the Government’s continuing approval of arms sales to Israel, the court has been presented with evidence that Israel is not complying with the legal obligations that apply during armed conflict. It is being asked to make an order requiring the Secretary of State for Business and Trade to no longer grant, and to suspend, all licences of weapons and military equipment exports to Israel for use in Gaza.